Global panel shipments will reach 770 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%

In the second half of this year, after a long period of downturn, the LCD panel market finally ushered in a slight recovery. On the one hand, the increase in demand for LCD TVs in China has driven the demand for LCD panels; on the other hand, the popularity of tablet PCs has also greatly promoted the global LCD panel market to pick up this year.

Quzhi Consulting expects that in 2012, the global shipment of large-size panels will reach 770 million, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. At the same time, it is considered that the supply and demand of large-size panels in 2013 will exhibit the characteristics of “overall balance and partial tension”.

From the perspective of market segments, the supply of Tablet panels in 2013 may be slightly surplus. Tablet PCs are still the main driving force for the growth of global large-size panels in 2013. With the continuous expansion of the Android camp and the launch of Microsoft's Win8 operating system and its application Surface, it is estimated that the market will form a “quarantine” trend in 2013. At the same time, after three years of rapid growth, the tablet PC market has entered a mature stage and it is estimated that demand growth will slow down in 2013. Qunzhi Consulting estimated that the global tablet PC market growth in 2013 will slow down to 37.8%. On the supply side, on the one hand, China's panel makers have matured in terms of high resolution, wide viewing angle, and touch screen technologies, and began to participate in the production of flat panel application panels on a large scale; on the other hand, flat panel application panels have strong demand and high profitability. Therefore, next year, both China and Japan will increase the production of G5 and above production capacity into the flat panel application panel. Therefore, Qunzhi Consulting estimates the possibility of excess supply of panel PC application panel.

In terms of monitor applications, the monitor market in 2013 is likely to remain depressed, with relatively balanced supply and demand, partial or tension. The display market is a mature market. Consumers are turning their attention to mobile devices such as tablets and smart phones, and global PC demand is weak. On the other hand, due to the low price of display panels, there is no profit margin for the panel industry, which has been losing for many years, and panel makers have low input enthusiasm. In 2013, the production of monitor panels was almost entirely transferred to G6 and above generations. Due to the production capacity of TV and tablet application panels, the size of mainstream display panels may be tight.

For notebook applications, the overall supply and demand balance, the market is expected to have high, there may be excess. In 2013, the panel makers in Taiwan and China have the most active layouts. They all have a large proportion of the development and production of high-resolution, wide-angle and light-weight super panels. The higher profitability is one of the main factors, and on the other hand, both Taiwanese and Chinese brand manufacturers are optimistic about the growth of the ultrabook market in 2013. Intel and notebook makers hope to rely on the launch of Ultrabook and Windows8 to increase notebook sales momentum. However, if the sales price of ultrabooks and variants remains high, it may not cause large-scale demand growth. The future development trend of the ultrabook depends on whether the price can fall within the consumer's psychological price, and it will trigger the replacement of notebooks. According to the analysis of the Super Supply Chain in 2013 by QunZhi Consulting, the large-scale cost reduction may not be effective until the second half of 2013. It is estimated that the growth of the global NB panel market in 2013 will be limited.

In terms of TV panels, the balance between supply and demand is overall, and structural stock-out problems still exist. The supply of TV panels in China is still the main driving force for the growth of global TV panels, and the demand in the Chinese market is still the focus of competition. Quzhi Consulting estimated that the shipment volume of panel makers in China in 2013 will increase by 21.6% year-on-year, and the total supply will maintain a relatively high growth rate. On the other hand, the large-sized TV panels will become more visible in 2013, and the increasingly disperse product lines will inevitably bring about the loss of panel makers' productivity and increase of costs. In the absence of new capacity in the world, it is feared that there will continue to be structural shortages.