2017 VR market trend: mobile VR products are ready to rebound at any time
In the first half of 2016, the VR market was overheated and capital expectations were very high. A large number of VR companies entered the market blindly. In the second half of the year, the VR industry turned cold, and the capital market was cold. In addition, some people sang the VR, resulting in VR. Being "excessively" pulled down. Next, each VR company should return to the commercial essence, but also a good time to do a good job of products, because the market that is “excessively low†will rebound at any time, and good VR companies will also gain huge profits. PCVR market lowers hardware threshold In recent years, as smartphones, tablet PCs and other products have seized the user market, global PC sales have shrunk every year. In 2015, the global sales volume was less than 300 million units. OculusRift and HTCVive require high-end configuration computers and special requirements for the use of the site. Therefore the number of target users is not very high. At the end of October 2016, Microsoft and Lenovo, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Asus and Acer released VR heads-up, and PCs of around RMB 3,000 could support their use, greatly reducing the threshold of VR helmets and locating lightweight VR content and hardware. Oculus is also lowering the barrier to PC configuration. It can be seen that reducing the VR hardware threshold to expand the user community is a good strategy, and the price that would otherwise be daunting for ordinary consumers can also be bitten. Similarly, the demand for VR games and applications running smoothly on low-configuration hardware may be greatly increased, and the requirements for developers are also greatly improved. The development of better quality content on limited hardware resources will be for ordinary content teams. It is a challenge. In 2017, it will be necessary to experience the excellent PCVR to expand the target group by reducing the VR hardware purchase threshold or reducing the VR purchase price. More critically, whether it can generate explosive VR content that is more in line with market development to retain users. PCVR and traditional PC computers have great similarities in some aspects. Perhaps they can learn from the historical market development trajectory to analyze and think about the future development trend of VR. Mobile VR market is growing steadily What about the mobile VR market, where the user market is bigger? In 2015, global smartphone shipments exceeded 1.4 billion units. Can VR boxes grow rapidly with the mobile phone market? How to survive the one machine? How to develop the content of mobile VR? Can you eliminate VR vertigo, a roadblock that prevents VR growth? What is the development of the entire mobile VR ecosystem? 1) Mobile GearVR box is the fastest popular According to the data of the Storm Mirror in 2016, the number of shallow VR users reached 27 million. According to foreign media data, VR boxes for mobile phones plugged in mobile phones sold tens of millions. Since the launch of the cardboard in 2014, the cardboard has been called the mobile version of Mobile VR. The GearVR released by Samsung is called the Emperor Edition of Mobile VR. Once it was launched, it was amazing and scared many users' chins. Up to now, after two years of development, the VR boxes that have been referenced in the domestic market have been listed one after another, and the excellent products are gradually increasing. The user experience that Cardboard consumes in advance is slowly being supplemented by subsequent products, such as 哆哚, fireworks. Square, Storm Mirror 5, Xiaomi VR and other products, built-in gyroscope, the experience has been greatly improved, almost to GearVR. According to the data of April 2016, the number of users of GearVR has exceeded 1 million, plus cardboard, cymbal, fireworks workshop, storm mirror, millet VR (online 2, monthly sales of 200,000 units), Huaqiang North, VRBox The sales of VR boxes in the world, such as Music, DreamVR, and Vision VR, are tens of millions. In the initial stage, this market is relatively optimistic. In addition, each major manufacturer also has VR hardware in succession. LeTV released VR in December 2015. Huawei VR was released in May 2016. ZTE VR is in June 2016. Xiaomi VR released a new generation of VR, Oppo, Lenovo in October. TCL, 360, etc. have been laid out from the hardware. For entrepreneurs who need high-cost market expansion work, it is easier and faster for these big companies to promote VR through their existing market channels. I once asked a friend to listen to VR. The answer to me was "I have never used it, but I have seen Tao's Buy, it's amazing, is it true?" Entrepreneur's technology accumulation of VR helmets If combined with mobile phone manufacturers' mobile phones, the experience of mobile VR helmets should be faster, and the experience of mobile VR should be improved more quickly. At present, many companies are adjusting in this direction, and the benefits are good. In summary, the advantages of the mobile GearVR box are: Can use the mobile phone channel to spread the market faster The cost of buying a box is only a few hundred yuan, and the user acquisition cost is relatively low. The average daily usage time of the user's VR is only 3-4 hours. The common functions of the user directly using the mobile phone when they do not need VR include calling, surfing the Internet, playing games, etc. When the VR is needed, the helmet can be worn. Portability is higher than PCVR, and users can use VR in cafes, subways, high-speed rails, airplanes, etc. and stop walking. The development history of mobile VR and the development history of mobile phones will be very similar. Under the premise that functional mobile phones sell more than 1 billion per year, users already have certain knowledge about mobile phones. Since 2007, Iphone4 has become the hottest in 2010. Mobile phones, by 2016, China's smart phones are approaching saturation; while Mobile VR is based on the premise that smartphones sell more than 1.4 billion per year, Samsung released the Mobile GearVR kit in 2014, and the fastest market penetration of mobile VR through smart phones. It may take about 10 years for mobile VR to reach a certain saturation state, and any potential mobile VR company that has developed during this time period has great opportunities. 2) VR integrated machine is another way Does the market difference between VR and mobile VR boxes need to learn from the market difference between mobile phones and tablets? The initial pain points of tablet PCs are the advantages of large screen, strong performance, strong battery life, good heat dissipation, etc. The annual sales volume in the world accounts for about 14% of mobile phone sales. In the past two years, with the development of large-screen mobile phones, mobile phones began to occupy the tablet. In the computer market, tablets have begun to shift to “productivity toolsâ€. Some new products are equipped with keyboards, which can be used for office work, mainly in the multimedia industry of the education industry, financial institutions and government information office. Compared with the mode of the mobile phone VR box, the VR integrated machine has great differences in the direction of high resolution screen, heat dissipation, wearing comfort and the like. These differences can be distinguished from the direction of the mobile phone VR box and gradually differentiate the user's needs. However, the disadvantage is that under the premise of the same hardware configuration, the VR machine without the call function will not be cheaper than the mobile phone VR box. This requires that the sales volume of the VR machine may further increase. 3) VR can't replace the mobile phone this communication platform, only 1/4 of the user's time China's GDP will not exceed US GDP in 2016 by 2025. The entire consumer group may only continue to change again now, and the group of consumption upgrades will be further expanded. Everyone still needs to go out to work to support themselves, or need to go out to school, or have the need to go out to date, socialize, shop, travel. In this context, it is impossible to replace all outings through a VR in a short time. So the time of fragmentation is still almost the same as it is now. Therefore, the usage scene of the VR can be superimposed with the usage scene of the mobile phone or the scene of the AR. When the VR is used, the user needs to stay still and cannot perform a large walking behavior (using slam for small-scale action elimination), so it can be excluded from work, driving, off-duty, offline social activities, office work (this scene can use VR) , but it takes longer to popularize.) You can't use VR in time. You should have 3-4 hours of use every morning, afternoon, and evening. You can use your mobile phone at other times, so VR can only account for about 1/4 of users. time. Assuming that the AR is mature in the future, the same device can perform AR/VR function switching. At that time, the function of the mobile phone may be replaced by the AR, and the user's time can be occupied by the AR and the VR. / / The above time is not very accurate, just for reference Therefore, VR's product design ideas need to consider these usage scenarios and time issues, and the products have added these elements. 4) How to solve the VR stun We should have seen more than one MagicLeap financing of more than one billion dollars in the company's gorgeous cool video, LightField light field technology is amazing, the popularity of LightField will solve the most difficult defense of VR stun, but in the integrated LightField display Before the popularization of technology or similar technology equipment, the vertigo problem caused by convergence cannot be solved, and this time may not be less than 3 years. Is it that VR is difficult to spread and difficult to develop before the popularity of LightField? Before the release of LightField, there is a product suitable for solving dizziness. After LightField is released, there is a suitable product for solving dizziness. Users, entrepreneurs and the vertigo problem in the capital market are not a big problem at all, or let the user continue to use VR for more than 2 hours without dizziness. . You can start from the following directions: The hardware combination of the VR all-in-one and the mobile GearVR box will solve the dizziness problem of hardware and optical mismatch. Refresh rate problem, at present, many companies have reduced the delay to 20ms, keep 60 frames, and can also join ATW technology. Three rotational degrees of freedom are not sufficient, requiring an additional three lateral, forward, and longitudinal movement degrees of freedom. Before the mobile SLAM interaction was perfectly implemented on mobile VR, content development only supported 3 rotation degrees of freedom, reducing the need for 3 additional degrees of freedom. In addition, many domestic gesture recognition companies are developing 3 freedoms for small movements. Degree program. Reduce the convergence of the convergence and focal length. The depth effect of VR content is generated by the use of convergence and the focal length of the eyeball. Especially when the depth of the VR content scene is too much, the user needs to look at the distance frequently and look at the vicinity. The eyeball is more likely to be exhausted and will lead to more Quick vertigo, so the VR theater's large screen mode can be used, the user looks at the front screen for a long time, occasionally feel the surrounding theater scene, immersed in the theater, watching the front of the movie, the convergence of the sync will be greatly reduced . Such product forms need to continue to dig deeper. The above four points are the most common reasons for vertigo. These points have corresponding solutions. The VR continuous use time is extended to more than 2 hours without any problem. When designing these products, you can reduce the vertigo. Lowest state. 5) Resolve the gap in the industry chain where VR content is scarce The essential role of VR content is to retain users, increase user retention, and seize user time. Movies and TV is a single-time high-frequency consumer product that can be quickly drained. A movie user will usually only watch it once and will not watch it. Unless it is a very classic movie, it is necessary to generate new content quickly and continuously in order to continue to occupy user time. The game is a high-frequency continuous consumer product, but the stand-alone version of the game user will not play again after playing for a period of time, online games can extend this time tens of times. At present, there are thousands of panoramic VR games, most of which are stand-alone versions, with fewer online versions, and thousands of panoramic VR videos. There are also some software such as panoramic roaming pictures. Better is VR theater and VR live broadcast, traditional large-screen video and video have hundreds of thousands, through the VR theater combined with these hundreds of thousands of content, you can horizontally drain the user's time, but still not enough, because the film is single high The frequency attribute determines that although there is a lot of content, most of them belong to products that have already been consumed. In 2016, the big screen plan was launched to transfer millions of mobile games, software and other millions of content to VR scenes, and a large number of online games and social software will increase the amount of content to the maximum extent. , to seize more user time. The ratio of large screen content to panoramic content is from the current 100:1 (which can better prevent vertigo) to 1:1 in the next 3 years (large screen content will always be market demand), large screen content depends on batch Rapid migration, panoramic content requires a lot of resources and manpower to produce or modify, these high-cost work before the entire market cash flow system is not formed. 6) The industry chain is developing steadily, and mobile VR is ready to go At present, hardware companies include Huawei, Samsung, ZTE, TCL, Oppo, Vivo, LeTV, 360, Xiaomi, Lenovo, Shenzhen Huaqiang North, etc. to provide high-quality basic VR hardware products, such as Qualcomm, ARM, Ruixinwei and other chip companies. The chip's high-quality algorithm, GPU performance optimization, etc., the operating system has Google's Android7.0, WIRK's mobile VR operating system, third-party company's VRROM open source or closed-loop products, the platform has 3D broadcast, storm mirror, orange VR, Hot Play, Sanmu VR, Iqiyi VR, Youku VR, Mirror, etc. The content includes VR cinema traditional film and television company, VR games and movies developed by the entrepreneurial team, and Taobao's Buy and other high-quality content. Interactive devices include Xbox gamepads, Google's single-handle, LeapMoTIon, and more. In all areas of mobile VR, companies have already entered the market, and each company is ready to go. In 2017, VR may rebound and rise again at any time. VR's capital market can also shift to innovative technology and VR content production. 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